An interesting document Chris. But I would have thought it would be a "draft" pending more information on just what the risk environment looks like moving out of Level 4.

My understanding is that the Alert Levels are Alert Levels - Increasing. That is there is an increasing risk of virus exposure.

It is to me conceivable that we will have a new set of Alert Levels - Decreasing after 22 April.

For example Alert Level Two - Increasing is
Risk assessment
- High risk of importing COVID-19 OR
- Increase in imported cases OR
- Increase in household transmission OR
- Single or isolated cluster outbreak.

Alert Level two - Decreasing may be
Risk assessment
- Very low risk of importing COVID-19 OR
- Decrease in imported cases OR
- Decrease in household transmission OR
- Single or isolated cluster under control.

We seem to be close to a revised Alert Level one. Increasing was:
Risk assessment
- Heightened risk of importing COVID-19 OR
- Sporadic imported cases OR
- Isolated household transmission associated with imported cases.

Decreasing could be:
Risk assessment
- Minimal risk of importing COVID-19 OR
- Virtually no imported cases OR
- very few Isolated household transmissions.

Its still too early too say but the last couple of days has seen less than 10 new cases a day. Of these 1, maybe 2 are related to importation and we can expect these numbers to drop. We arent really at level 3 any more - which is
Risk assessment
- Community transmission occurring OR (seems to be more close contact transmision)
- Multiple clusters break out. (Currently 15 clusters and we may be close to max cluster)

So it is conceivable that by 23 April there are no new cases a day and havent been for a week or so. Which suggests a risk of around zero. And therefore much closer to Alert Level One than Alert Level Two

Hi Chris,
A good initiative by CHASNZ.